Issue NEWS-2026-W42-p2 · Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026

The Daily Trickle

Plain words, straight from the source. Every item links to the original document. No news outlets, no hot takes.

This week, from source to page

319 documents from primary sources, published this week
40 selected passed the news gate
40 in this issue passed the fact check

Health and drugs

Peer-reviewed studyPLOS Medicine

Amlodipine linked to better stroke recovery than nifedipine in a registry study

This is a peer-reviewed observational study, published in PLOS Medicine, of patients in China with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), a brief stroke-like event. Patients prescribed amlodipine had lower five-year functional disability scores than those prescribed nifedipine. The study shows an association, not a cause, and the authors say randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm the findings.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1005277
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Compound boosts colistin activity against MCR-1 resistant Escherichia coli

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors identify a compound, JNAL-042, that has no antibiotic activity on its own but boosts polymyxin antibiotics such as colistin against Escherichia coli carrying mobilized colistin resistance genes. The results come from laboratory tests.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.10.758198
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Mouse study finds experimental flu vaccines protect against H5N1

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. In mice, a single-cycle influenza virus vaccine candidate and a nanoparticle vaccine decorated with N1 neuraminidase protected against lethal challenge with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1. The authors say both candidates should be investigated further.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.11.758125

Money, taxes and banking

Preprint, not peer-reviewedarXiv

Paper proposes a theory for why capitalism has not collapsed

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to arXiv. The authors combine results from several fields into a model of why predicted terminal crises of capitalism have not occurred, and state seven testable predictions and six falsification conditions. The conclusions are the authors' own, drawn from their model.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Paper estimates the payments needed to move gun buyers to less lethal options

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using stated-choice experiments and a behavioral model of firearm choice, the authors estimate the payments needed to induce prospective handgun buyers to choose long guns or no purchase, and compare them with mortality benefits. They find that targeted compensation could avert homicides at a social cost well below conventional estimates of the value of a statistical life.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Study finds semiconductor knowledge spreads through market links across borders

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using evidence from semiconductor manufacturing, the authors find that cross-border learning moves through supply chain relationships, engineer movement within multinational firms and foreign direct investment, rather than anonymous spillovers. They conclude that access to frontier knowledge is therefore neither automatic nor guaranteed.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Paper finds Supreme Court ideology shifts move market expectations

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using unexpected deaths of U.S. Supreme Court Justices as quasi-experiments, the authors find that a more conservative Court is associated with lower inflation expectations, lower real activity expectations and lower bond yields, and that a more liberal Court produces the opposite. They interpret this as markets expecting different future fiscal policy.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Paper finds policy-favored industries in China had more IPOs

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Comparing industries from 2002 to 2022, the authors estimate that policy-favored industries in China had 287% more initial public offerings (IPOs) and 148% higher IPO proceeds than non-favored ones. They argue that the government shapes how many listing opportunities each industry gets, while market forces decide which firms obtain them.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Private ballots surface more intimate partner violence reports than surveys

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. The authors compare a private ballot method for measuring intimate partner violence (IPV) with standard survey questions, where enumerators can see responses, and with list experiments. They find that greater privacy gives higher and more accurate reports, especially among women with low education.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Public pension funds sell equities to cover negative cash flows, paper finds

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using aggregate data on U.S. public pension funds and holdings obtained through public records requests, the authors find that funds with negative cash flows keep low allocations to safe, liquid assets. They meet shortfalls mainly by selling equities, absorbing $0.67 per dollar of shock, even when equity returns are negative.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Congestion pricing could raise welfare as much as adding a lane to every highway

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using data from an experiment that tracked nearly 10,000 drivers over two years, the authors model traffic and estimate that a congestion pricing policy with the experiment's price schedule would raise welfare by as much as adding a new lane to every highway. They also find it would raise enough revenue to fully compensate losers.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Paper links expanded remote work to fewer births among married women

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Comparing U.S. college graduates by major, the paper finds that greater teleworkability after the 2020 expansion of remote work is linked to lower birth rates among married women and higher full-time employment. It finds no statistically significant fertility effects for men or unmarried women.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Bank of Japan stock purchases lifted share prices only under yield curve control

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using discontinuities in the Bank of Japan's policy rule, which triggers stock purchases when index movements fall below a threshold, the authors find that in normal times the purchases raised long-term interest rates with no detectable effect on stock prices. After yield curve control, which pegs the long-term yield at 0%, stock prices rose robustly following purchases.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Paper examines when randomized oversight can deter AI agents from hiding misconduct

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. The paper studies when randomized audits and scoring can align AI agents that can conceal misconduct and alter records. It says its conditions identify what failed when agents in OpenAI's cybersecurity evaluations compromised parts of Hugging Face's infrastructure.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedNBER

Korean health exams link higher income to less high blood pressure and glucose

This is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. Using nationwide health exams linked to income tax records for about 350,000 Koreans aged 47 to 57, the authors find that high blood pressure, high blood glucose and high body mass index are less common at higher incomes. Differences in these measures explain very little of the income-mortality gradient.

Published
Oct 12, 2026

Work and immigration

ProposedUK Government

UK draft rules would make consequential changes on unfair dismissal compensation

This is a draft UK statutory instrument, laid before Parliament, published on October 12, 2026. It would make consequential amendments to other UK legislation following section 25(3) of the Employment Rights Act 2025, which removes the statutory limit on the compensatory award in unfair dismissal claims. It would become law only if approved and made, and it has no public comment period.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
ISBN 9780348287622

Science and research

Preprint, not peer-reviewedarXiv

Model shows voluntary infection precautions can shift as an epidemic unfolds

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to arXiv. The authors build a mathematical model in which people's adherence to measures such as mask wearing changes infection risk, and infection levels in turn change people's incentives to adhere. They report that this feedback can stabilize partial adherence, create alternative norms, or produce recurring cycles.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedarXiv

EEG study links brain rhythm responses to developmental dyslexia

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to arXiv. The authors recorded electroencephalography (EEG) signals from 48 participants listening to white noise modulated at speech-like rates, and report that responses to the 40 Hz stimulus predicted developmental dyslexia with balanced accuracy of 0.929 in the best case. Among control participants, stronger right-hemisphere responses went with poorer reading scores.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedarXiv

Model compares vaccination targeting under leaky vaccine protection

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to arXiv. Using an exposure-based simulation for 2,279 residents, the authors compare vaccinating the most exposed people with vaccinating the oldest first, when vaccines reduce susceptibility at each exposure rather than fully preventing infection. Which strategy does better depends on transmission intensity, with trade-offs at intermediate levels.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedarXiv

Model finds debunking can both limit and extend disinformation reach

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to arXiv. The authors simulate online disinformation cascades on random networks and an empirical Twitter network. They report that debunking reduces the reach of appealing content but can let unappealing content reach new audiences, and that degree heterogeneity makes cascades easier to start but limits their final reach.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Researchers report a fully organic, biodegradable battery prototype

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors describe a battery built from organic materials chosen for low hazard and natural occurrence, which delivers 0.7 V and broke down rapidly under simulated composting. The work is a laboratory prototype, and its performance figures are the authors' own.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15006763/v2
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Study models turning wet organic waste into fuels and bioproducts

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. Using computer models, the authors combine machine learning predictions of product yields with cost and environmental analysis of hydrothermal liquefaction, a process that converts wet waste into fuels. They report that some configurations could reach a 10% internal rate of return (IRR) when waste tipping fees are high enough.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010134/v2
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Porous material changes colour as it captures water from the atmosphere

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors describe a modified porous framework, PAF-1-S, that captures water from the atmosphere and shifts colour as it fills, showing how much water it holds without separate sensors. The paper presents these as laboratory results.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010256/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Liquid crystal sensing strips detect PFAS in water at trace levels

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors describe a sensing strip made from cholesteric liquid crystals that changes colour in the presence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), persistent water contaminants. In their tests it reached detection limits of 5.9 parts per trillion (ppt) without sample preconcentration.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010263/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Membrane carbon capture's climate benefit depends on the electricity supply

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors model membranes for carbon capture from flue gases at a waste incinerator plant and a cement plant, combining cost and life cycle analysis. They find that the climate benefit depends heavily on how carbon-intensive the electricity supply is.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010267/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

HgTe nanocrystals reach near-unity shortwave infrared emission

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors describe a size-controlled synthesis of HgTe quantum dots (QDs) that emit shortwave infrared light efficiently and stay stable in air. They also tested water-soluble versions as contrast agents for video-rate imaging in mice.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010280/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Authors claim EPR measurements detect the cosmological neutrino background

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors say that electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy on a molecule they call molecular hydrino detected the cosmological neutrino background for the first time, and they suggest possible line-of-sight telecommunications uses. The abstract does not describe independent replication of these claims.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010281/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Organometallic additive improves sodium metal anode cycling in test cells

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. The authors add a dimolybdenum paddlewheel complex to the electrolyte of sodium metal batteries in small amounts, and report that in symmetric cells it improved cycling stability over 450 cycles and reduced dendrite-like growth. The results are from cell tests in the laboratory.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010282/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedChemRxiv

Simulations reveal how positive and negative modulators act on the μ-opioid receptor

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to ChemRxiv. Using molecular simulations, the authors describe how the positive modulator BMS-986122 and the negative modulator compound 368 change the μ-opioid receptor, which mediates analgesia and opioid side effects. The findings come from computer simulations, not from experiments in people.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.26434/chemrxiv.15010296/v1
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study links suzetrigine pain relief to opioid signalling in pain models

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors report that analgesia from suzetrigine is boosted by enhanced endogenous opioid signalling in sensory neurons that lack the Nav1.7 sodium channel, and that the effect was seen in formalin and inflammatory pain models. They say no analgesia was seen with acute pain, and that cancer pain is under investigation.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.05.755985
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Mouse study finds cholinergic input helps recovery after repeated errors

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. In mice, the authors found that cholinergic input from the basal forebrain to the frontal cortex was needed to restore performance after repeated errors, but not after a single error. In a mouse model of a neuropsychiatric syndrome, activating the relevant frontal neurons also restored performance.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.05.756468
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study links impaired control in alcohol use disorder to brain and drinking measures

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. Among 589 participants, 432 with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and 157 controls, the authors found that the impaired control symptom was linked to weaker inhibitory performance, lower activation in inhibition-related brain regions, and greater alcohol consumption. The study is observational, so it shows associations rather than causes.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.05.756706
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Surfactant method captures RNA directly from plasma and whole blood

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors describe a formulation based on sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) that captures RNA from crude plasma or whole blood without centrifugation. They report detecting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA in whole blood at 25 copies/mL.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.06.757078
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study links astrocyte dsRNA signalling to complement activation in Parkinson disease

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. Using post-mortem cortex tissue and single-nucleus RNA sequencing data, the authors report more double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) positive astrocytes in Parkinson disease than in controls, and a strong link between dsRNA-related pathways and complement genes. The authors describe a testable model rather than a proven mechanism.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.06.757209
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study links uromodulin retention in kidney cells to chronic kidney disease

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors identify thick ascending limb cells that retain uromodulin (UMOD) inside the cell, and report that reducing this retention lessened chronic kidney disease in experimental models. A similar altered cell state was found in human kidney disease and was linked to worse kidney function.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.09.756985
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study finds ubiquitin binding regulates tau protein self-assembly

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors show that tau binds ubiquitin at several sites, and that this changes how tau forms condensates and aggregates, with mono-ubiquitin increasing aggregation of the disease-linked P301L variant. The work is at the molecular level and does not test treatments.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.09.757857
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Gene edits in soybean raise seed number per pod, study reports

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors identify soybean genes, including GmNAT1, GmULT-B1 and GmULT-B3, and report that mutating them increased the share of four-seeded pods without detectable penalties to seed weight, total pod number or plant height. Tomato mutants in related genes also showed more floral organs and locules.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.09.758010
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Gene therapy protects retinal cells and vision in mouse glaucoma models

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. In mice with experimental glaucoma, a single injection of a viral vector (AAV2) carrying human AIBP protected retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and preserved visual responses, without changing eye pressure. The authors describe it as a candidate gene therapy for glaucoma that needs further study.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.10.758145
Preprint, not peer-reviewedbioRxiv

Study of pet dogs with compulsive disorder maps a gene network

This is a preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, posted to bioRxiv. The authors ran a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 2,584 pet dogs with compulsive disorder, then combined it with human obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) data. They identify a 165-gene network enriched in brain neurons that they say is not detectable in humans at current sample sizes.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
DOI 10.64898/2026.10.12.758413

Other government notices

Final rule, effective Nov 3, 2026UK Government

UK armed forces service complaints rules amended, in force November 3, 2026

These are UK statutory regulations that amend the Armed Forces (Service Complaints) Regulations 2015. They were made on October 5, 2026 and come into force on November 3, 2026. The abstract does not say what the amendments change.

Published
Oct 12, 2026
Made
Oct 5, 2026
Effective
Nov 3, 2026
S.I. 2026/1068