The Daily Trickle

Study estimates fewer resistance-related deaths with less antibiotic use

This peer-reviewed observational study, published in PLOS Medicine on October 26, 2026, used global surveillance data from 2000 to 2018 covering over 30 million bacterial isolates from 114 countries. It estimates that 10% lower antibiotic use across drug classes would be associated with 38,000 fewer annual deaths from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) worldwide, about 0.50% of bacterial disease deaths. Because it relies on ecological relationships, the study shows associations rather than direct cause, and its surveillance data under-represent low-resource settings.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint links a circular RNA to immune cell response in tuberculosis

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports that a circular RNA called Circ_0074371 was lower in monocytes from patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis. In laboratory experiments, the authors say it reduced survival of Mycobacterium tuberculosis inside macrophages and pushed them toward the M1 polarization state. They propose that it works by sequestering miR-4738-3p, a regulator of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK).

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint says tuberculosis model assumptions change projections for India

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a modelling study of tuberculosis transmission. The authors report that a gamma-distributed model of time spent in the asymptomatic stage fits the data at least as well as the standard exponential model. For India, it projects a slower decline in incidence under the status quo but a larger reduction when active case finding is used.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint estimates 7.48 million more US adults qualify for GLP-1 receptor agonists

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, analyses adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2011 to 2018 against the 2026 cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome guideline. The authors estimate it would newly make 7.48 million US adults eligible for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), mostly people with overweight and lower cardiovascular risk, and no additional adults for sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i). They add that whether treating these adults improves outcomes cost-efficiently remains to be established.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint says some AI language models diagnose sepsis more accurately than doctors

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, tests five large language models (LLMs), which are AI systems that generate text, on six anonymised case descriptions of sepsis, a life-threatening response to infection. The authors compared the models with 353 clinicians and report that after laboratory biomarkers were added, Qwen3.8-27B reached 91% accuracy against 61% for physicians. They also report that language, but not patient sex or age, shifted the models' diagnoses.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint reports a blood-based method may detect Alzheimer-linked DNA changes

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports that a sensitive method for mapping DNA methylation in cell-free DNA from blood can detect differences between people with and without Alzheimer disease. The authors compare age- and sex-matched participants from the Rush Memory and Aging Project and say the blood changes link to brain-specific alterations. They present the approach as a possible non-invasive tool for biomarker research, not a test ready for use.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint links anxiety in early Alzheimer's to a specific brain network

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, analyses magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and amyloid-beta positron emission tomography (PET) scans from 1,775 cognitively unimpaired older adults. The authors report that greater atrophy in the Alzheimer-related brain network was associated with higher anxiety, independent of depression, and that the anxiety network closely resembles the Alzheimer network. They also say greater atrophy in the anxiety network was associated with cognitive decline over 4.6 years.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Systematic review finds most non-drug treatments for back pain cost-effective

This peer-reviewed systematic review, published in PLOS Medicine on October 27, 2026, appraised 20 cost-effectiveness studies of guideline-recommended, non-drug, non-surgical treatments for low back pain. The authors report that most interventions are cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000, and that some, including fear and stress reduction and self-management support for chronic pain, may save costs compared with usual care. All of the evidence comes from high-income countries, and evidence from low- and middle-income countries remains limited.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint links advanced cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic stages to faster cognitive decline

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, pools data from global aging cohorts covering 28,242 participants, with a mean follow-up of 6.5 years. The authors report that advanced stages (3 and 4) of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome were associated with faster decline in attention, executive function and language, and with depressive symptoms among cognitively unimpaired people. They estimate modifiable factors accounted for 24.8% of cognitive impairment risk, mainly social isolation, depressive symptoms and physical inactivity.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint maps natural killer cell changes across 50 diseases

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, builds a Human NK-cell Atlas (HNKA) from more than 1 million NK cells from 1,632 donors with 50 diseases. The authors report disease-linked shifts in specific NK-cell states, such as interferon-related signals in infection and autoimmunity. They also describe a model, NKceiver, that distinguished 18 diseases and predicted COVID-19 severity from NK-cell expression profiles.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint links influenza to inflammation that may destabilize artery plaque in mice

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a study in mice infected with influenza A that profiles gene activity across the lungs and aorta. The authors report that influenza drove inflammation in both organs and that lung changes were linked to changes in the aorta. They say this may destabilize atherosclerotic plaque during the recovery period after infection.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint links a blood signature to early tuberculosis treatment response

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, analyses blood samples from people with tuberculosis at baseline and four weeks into treatment across three South African cohorts. The authors report 63 consistently changed genes, including fewer neutrophils, and a signature called EARLY5 that predicted sputum culture conversion by week 4 with a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.76. They say the results support further testing in independent cohorts.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint describes DDU384, a new tuberculosis drug candidate, in mouse models

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, describes DDU384, a compound the authors call a preclinical candidate for tuberculosis after testing in mouse models of infection. The authors say it was effective alone and in drug combinations, and showed potential to shorten treatment in a relapse model. Toxicology studies are under way before any first-in-human trial.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Draft UK order would change the classification of certain drugs

This is a draft UK statutory instrument, not yet law, which would become law only if approved and made. If made, it would bring certain drugs under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971 in line with recommendations from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, by amending Schedule 2 to the Act, which sets the Class A, Class B and Class C classification of controlled drugs. The document states that a drug's classification affects the criminal penalties for offences relating to it.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Final rule cuts and revises some health IT certification requirements

This final rule, from the Health and Human Services Department (HHS), deregulates health information technology standards and certification programs by removing and revising certain certification criteria and regulatory provisions. The rule says it reduces burden on developers and providers and takes effect on December 28, 2026.

Published

Oct 28, 2026

Effective

Dec 28, 2026

How to weigh in: No comment period: this is a final rule.

Working paper studies why governments regulate foreign ownership of firms

This working paper from NBER, not yet peer-reviewed, is an economic theory paper on why governments regulate foreign ownership of domestic firms to protect national security. The authors argue that ownership changes who controls firm decisions, which matters for geopolitical outcomes when contracts cannot settle those decisions. They say US regulation has tightened with rising geopolitical tensions and is tighter in sectors with more exposure to defense demand.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Working paper uses AI to read manager forecasts and predict economic activity

This working paper, not yet peer-reviewed, uses generative artificial intelligence (AI) to extract managers' economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The authors say the resulting AI Economy Score predicts gross domestic product (GDP) growth, production, employment and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other measures. They argue the predictive power reflects information rather than noise.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint models how AI could thin the pipeline that trains future experts

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, is a theoretical model of a firm with junior and senior staff, asking what happens to expertise when codified work is automated. Its baseline scenario shows junior demand falling first and the time to develop an expert rising from about five years to nine, and a manager with a three-year horizon could cut the wage bill by 21 percent while the firm's capacity on work AI cannot do falls by two-fifths. The authors stress that these are scenarios, not forecasts, because two key parameters are not yet measured.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint's simulations put an AI intelligence explosion at about even odds

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, is an economic model of whether AI progress can feed back into AI research fast enough for a self-sustaining acceleration, which the author calls a software-driven intelligence explosion (SIE). Calibrated to recent AI progress, the author finds an SIE occurs in 49% of Monte Carlo simulation draws, with capability progress likely fast enough and efficiency progress on a knife-edge. The author says better data on efficiency progress is essential for judging how likely an SIE is.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint finds equilibrium prices sharply cut EV charging peaks in a German grid model

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, simulates price-optimized electric vehicle (EV) charging using real-time prices calibrated to German 2025 data. The authors report that adding a model of how charging feeds back into wholesale prices reduces the increase in the local grid's import peak from 260% to 5%. They note that rebound peaks remain possible where vehicle adoption runs ahead of the national average or charging power is high.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint models how employers should screen job applicants using AI

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, is a theoretical study of how an employer should hire when generative artificial intelligence (AI) makes application materials more polished without improving skills. The authors argue that as manipulation ability becomes more dispersed among applicants with the same observable quality, the socially best hiring rule converges to selection on observable quality alone, which they call strategic feature collapse. They also propose a dual-track mechanism that admits some high-quality applicants directly and gives others a report-based route, which they say is asymptotically optimal under additional regularity.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

UK rules add 4G and 5G eCall standards and keep 2G-era standards until shutdown

This is UK law, made on October 22, 2026, and it comes into force on March 31, 2027. It replaces the technical standards referred to in Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 305/2013 so that they include Next Generation (4G/5G) eCall. It also saves existing standards until 2G networks cease operation.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Made

Oct 22, 2026

Effective

Mar 31, 2027

UK law amends the Boiler Upgrade Scheme rules

This is UK law, made on October 21, 2026, and it came into force on October 22, 2026. It amends section 100 of the Energy Act 2008 and makes minor amendments to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (England and Wales) Regulations 2022.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Made

Oct 21, 2026

Effective

Oct 22, 2026

UK law amends the rules for pedicabs in London

This is a final UK statutory instrument that amends the Pedicabs (London) regulations, which cover pedicabs in London. The official text provided has no summary, so the specific changes are not described here; the original gives the detail.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Virginia transfers part of its 2026 summer flounder quota to New Jersey

This temporary rule, in effect since October 27, 2026, is a notice from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that Virginia is transferring part of its 2026 commercial summer flounder quota to New Jersey. The transfer follows the quota transfer provisions of the Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fishery Management Plan and revises the 2026 commercial quotas for both states.

Published

Oct 28, 2026

Effective

Oct 27, 2026

How to weigh in: No comment period: this is a final rule.

New York transfers part of its 2026 bluefish quota to North Carolina

This temporary rule, in effect since October 27, 2026, is a notice from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that New York is transferring part of its 2026 commercial bluefish quota to North Carolina. The transfer follows the quota transfer provisions of the Atlantic Bluefish Fishery Management Plan and revises the 2026 commercial bluefish quotas for both states.

Published

Oct 28, 2026

Effective

Oct 27, 2026

How to weigh in: No comment period: this is a final rule.

Preprint finds AI agents' cooperation depends on partners and wording

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, runs the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma among open-weight large language models (LLMs), in pairs and in networks. The authors report that cooperation is highly sensitive to model mix and small wording changes, and that models which cooperate with identical peers can shift to defection in mixed groups. They say this challenges the idea that cooperation is a stable property of a model.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint reports fluorine boosts a solid battery electrolyte's voltage stability

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports a laboratory study of solid electrolytes for batteries. The authors say fluorine added at selected oxygen sites raised the oxidation onset from 4.08 to 4.27 volts while keeping ionic conductivity of about 10 mS per cm. The aim is better voltage stability without slowing lithium-ion transport.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint links a protein to cartilage breakdown in osteoarthritis

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a laboratory study of cartilage cells from mice and cattle. The authors report that losing the protein Tpm3.1 reduced cortical F-actin and shifted chondrocytes toward a catabolic gene pattern. They link this to the transcription factors Yes-associated protein (YAP) and Myocardin-related transcription factor A (MRTF).

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Preprint models how pharmaceutical firms' ethical compliance rises and falls

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, is a mathematical model of how pharmaceutical firms, regulators and public scrutiny interact, fitted to composite indices for 2010 to 2024. The authors argue that ethical compliance is an oscillating state rather than a permanent one, and that it collapses once bureaucratic friction passes a threshold; the empirical friction index crosses both thresholds between 2016 and 2020. They also report that, relative to revenue, penalties were highest for firms with the lowest research and development (R&D) intensity.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint argues sustainability should be judged by rates, not total stocks

This preprint, not yet peer-reviewed, is a conceptual physical framework arguing that long-term sustainability depends on rates, such as power density and how fast dispersed materials can be recycled under diffuse solar flux, rather than on total energy use or material stocks. The authors argue that many technologies remain viable only through stock drawdown and high-power buffering, and that long-term sustainability requires reducing aggregate industrial throughput.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint says chlorine and alkaline treatment more than doubles membrane water flow

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a laboratory study of polyamide membranes, which are widely used in freshwater production. The authors report that sequential chlorination and alkaline treatment more than doubled water permeance while the membrane still blocked salt. They attribute this to changes in swelling and to entropic barriers to salt transport.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint says self-heating evens out sodium-ion battery cells in cold weather

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a computer-model study of series sodium-ion battery packs at sub-zero temperatures. The authors report that cells with higher resistance heat more and catch up with lower-resistance cells, flattening capacity differences by 39.7% at minus 30 degrees Celsius at 0.5C. They also report the effect held after 500 cycles.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint maps the cheapest sites for direct air capture of carbon dioxide

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, is a global model of where to site solid-sorbent direct air capture with carbon dioxide (CO2) storage (DACCS), a technology that removes CO2 from the air. The authors estimate that the cheapest near-term sites cost about 1,100 to 1,200 USD per tonne of CO2, in the central United States and western Australia. By 2050 they estimate about 98% of sites would fall below 1,000 USD per tonne.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint proposes polymer substitutes for key lipids in mRNA nanoparticles

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports laboratory work on polymer-based replacements for some lipid components of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), which deliver messenger RNA (mRNA). The authors say their first-generation polymers functionally replaced standard polyethylene glycol (PEG) lipid and ionizable lipid components in vitro and in vivo. Some formulations gave expression comparable to, or in some cases higher than, conventional lipid formulations.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint proposes muscle wasting in cachexia is a wound-healing adaptation

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, combines a mathematical model with experiments on induced muscle wasting (IMW) in wounds and chronic disease. The authors hypothesize that IMW helps wounds heal and that, when a wound does not heal, prolonged wasting leads to cachexia. They report acute wound healing was about 2 to 6 times longer when IMW was inhibited, and that inhibiting it prevented muscle loss more effectively than nutritional support alone.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint describes scaffolds for growing lab-made red blood cells at higher density

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports laboratory scaffolds made by melt electrowriting (MEW) from polycaprolactone (PCL), shaped like bone marrow trabeculae. The authors say the scaffolds let cells grow at higher density and produced more erythroid cells than standard designs. The aim is to cut the cost of cultured red blood cells for transfusion, and the authors report a 74% increase in supernatant cell numbers compared with liquid culture.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Preprint finds influenza virus evolved along varied paths in lab airway cultures

This preprint, not yet reviewed by other scientists, reports an experiment in which an H3N2 influenza A virus was passaged for 1,200 generations in 12 culture lines of human airway epithelium, with immune selection removed. The authors found variant accumulation rates differed between lines but parallel evolution was minimal. They suggest influenza evolution is shaped more by the selective context than by fixed functional limits.

Published

Oct 27, 2026

UK law lets English mayoral combined authorities issue precepts more widely

This is UK law, made on October 22, 2026, and it comes into force in England on November 13, 2026. It amends the arrangements under which mayoral combined authorities and mayoral combined county authorities issue precepts. It removes the restriction, in Section 12 of the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026, under which precepts could be issued only in respect of mayoral functions.

Published

Oct 26, 2026

Made

Oct 22, 2026

Effective

Nov 13, 2026